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[ Downloads Main | Popular ] Most Popular - Top 50 Show Top: [ 10 - 25 - 50 | 1% - 5% - 10% ]   Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management: insights from the UPEM conference   Description: Jeroen van der Sluijs: Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management: insights from the UPEM conference Communication across the science-policy interface is complicated by uncertainty and ignorance associated with predictions on which to base policies. The international symposium “Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management” (UPEM) addressed the philosophy, approaches and scientific tools associated with the analysis and communication of uncertainty and ignorance to decisions makers in relation to the Precautionary Principle. This paper presents a sample of highlights and insights of UPEM of relevance to the environmental modeling communities. Key insights include: (1) Systematic long-term monitoring and learning are essential. (2) More attention is needed for model structure uncertainty and equifinality. (3) Explicit value articulation in environmental assessment is essential. (4) Sophisticated uncertainty assessment and Quality Assurance methods - such as the Walker&Harremoes et al. conceptual uncertainty framework, NUSAP, and codes of uncertainty-explicit modeling practice from RIVM and EPA -, are now available and on their way of becoming main stream. (5) There is a wide range of precautionary interventions (a ban is not the only option). (6) Legal and Ethical dimensions of precaution – such as liability, burden of proof, inter- and intra generational equity - require more thought. (7) The problems that developing countries face in implementing the Precautionary Principle need more attention. Version: Oct 2004 Filesize: 351.88 Kb Added on: 20-Oct-2004 Downloads: 38952 HomePage Category: papers   Decision-making under uncertainty: Is there any other kind?   Description: Decision-making under uncertainty: Is there any other kind? Presentation by Naomi Oreskes in the Break-out session "Uncertainty, assumptions and value commitments in environemental assessment" at the Internatational workshop Interfaces between Science and Society, Milano, 27-28 November 2003. Version: 24-11-2003 Filesize: 81.05 Kb Added on: 01-Dec-2003 Downloads: 15833 Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Uncertainty and climate change adaptation - a scoping study   Description: This report reviews state-of-the-art of methods and tools available in the literature in helping inform adaptation decisions. We focus on the assessment of climate change uncertainties. Further, the report reviews existing frameworks for decision making under uncertainty for adaptation to climate change. The report explores how different ways of including uncertainty in decision making match with uncertainty information provided by the various uncertainty assessment methods. It reviews a broad range of areas of climate change impacts and impacted sectors of society and economy that may require a response of planned adaptation. Version: Dec2007 Filesize: 2.33 MB Added on: 21-Dec-2007 Downloads: 8916 HomePage Category: Reports   Expert Elicitation: Methodological suggestions for its use in environmental health impact assessment   Description: Expert Elicitation: Methodological suggestions for its use in environmental health impact assessments This document contains three parts: (1) an introduction, (2) an overview with building blocks and methodological suggestions for a formal expert elicitation procedure; and (3) a literature list with key sources of information used and suggestions for further reading. A glossary is provided in Appendix 1. Part one starts with the scope and aim of this document, and continues with a brief introduction to the issue of uncertainty in environmental Health Impact Assessments. The potential usefulness of expert elicitation in exploring particular uncertainties is then issued, thereby focusing on quantifiable input for which no reliable data is available (uncertain quantities), such as a particular exposure-response-function. Part two is intended as guidance to build a formal (i.e. well-developed, structured, systematic, transparent, traceable, and documented) expert elicitation procedure that is tailored to the particular research question and the uncertainties at hand. To this end, an overview (Figure 1) and possible basic building blocks are provided. For each building block, methodological suggestions are provided with a view to refer the reader to a range (variety) of possible methods. Yet this overview does not claim to be exhaustive nor representative of all published methodologies for expert elicitation. Version: Dec 2008 Filesize: 352.54 Kb Added on: 22-Jan-2009 Downloads: 7000 HomePage Category: Reports   Global Systems Failures   Description: Jerry Ravetz: Global Systems Failures It is now obvious that there is a problem of possible massive failures of the various systems on which modern society, indeed all of civilisation, depends. Thanks to climate change and instability, we must reckon with the prospect of at the very least the disruption of our civilisation, quite possibly its serious damage or collapse, and indeed the real possibility of an extinction of species on a scale that takes us back to early in the history of life on the planet. Should we escape from any of those fates, we still must reckon with the fragility of many other global systems. Those of national defence are threatened by the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Those of the management of wastes are already compromised by insidious pollutants. Our systems of maintaining health are seriously threatened by biological pathogens which are created by the conditions of modern technology, be they in mass over-medication, mass travel or mass food. Even the systems of communication are vulnerable to 'malware', pathogens of information which, it now seems, can at best be kept at bay and never wiped out. And suddenly the world, particularly the Anglo-Saxon part, perceives itself as threatened with a failure of systems of protection against 'terror'. This is considered by governments to be so serious as to justify the suspension of liberties that were won many hundreds of years ago. Everywhere we look, there are threats of failures of systems, many on a global scale. Version: Sept 2005 Filesize: 267.56 Kb Added on: 26-Sep-2005 Downloads: 6757 HomePage Category: papers   Uncertainty Communication Issues and good practice   Description: This report has been developed for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. It offers background information on uncertainty communication, and contains suggestions and guidance on how to communicate uncertainties in environmental assessment reports to several target audiences in an adequate, clear, and systematic way. It is not claimed that this is the only way or the best way to communicate uncertainty information, but the guidance in this report draws upon insights from the literature, insights from an international expert workshop on uncertainty communication, and several uncertainty communication experiments in the Utrecht Policy Laboratory. Version: Dec2007 Filesize: 1.10 MB Added on: 31-Dec-2007 Downloads: 6721 HomePage Category: Reports   Jeroen van der Sluijs: Towards a synthesis of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty assessment   Description: Jeroen van der Sluijs, Penny Kloprogge, James Risbey, and Jerry Ravetz TOWARDS A SYNTHESIS OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT: APPLICATIONS OF THE NUMERAL, UNIT, SPREAD, ASSESSMENT, PEDIGREE (NUSAP) SYSTEM Extended abstract prepared on invitation by the US Environmental Protection Agency for the International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling, August 19-21, 2003, Rockville, MD, US. Organised by the Federal Working Group on Uncertainty and Parameter Estimation under the Federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM). Version: 1 Filesize: 672.70 Kb Added on: 04-Aug-2003 Downloads: 6639 HomePage Category: papers   Towards a new paradigm of science in scientific policy advising   Description: Towards a new paradigm of science in scientific policy advising Version: 2007 Filesize: 41.35 Kb Added on: 15-Oct-2007 Downloads: 5081 HomePage Category: papers   Andrea Saltelli: Quantitative methods to manage uncertainty in science   Description: Presentation by Andrea Saltelli at the Mini-symposium "The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy", World Congress on Risk, Brussels, 22-25 June 2003. Version: Filesize: 1.07 MB Added on: 25-Jun-2003 Downloads: 4386 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   A Checklist for Quality Assistance in Environmental Modelling   Description: Risbey, James, Jeroen van der Sluijs, Jerry Ravetz, Peter Janssen, A Checklist for Quality Assistance in Environmental Modelling, Dept. of Science, Technology and Society, Utrecht University. 22 pp. NWS-E-2001-11 Version: April 2001 Filesize: 764.23 Kb Added on: 09-Oct-2001 Downloads: 4331 HomePage Category: Reports   Tool Catalogue of RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication   Description: This report contains the Tool Catalogue of the RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication, Authors: J.P. van der Sluijs, P.H.M. Janssen, A.C. Petersen, P. Kloprogge, J.S. Risbey, W. Tuinstra, J.R. Ravetz. For each tool it gives a brief description of what it does and how it works and it provides information on: What sorts and locations of uncertainty does this tool address? What resources are required to use the tool? Strengths and limitations of each tool Some guidance on the application of the tools and hints on complementarity with other tools Typical pitfalls of each tool References to handbooks, user-guides, example case studies, web sites and in-house and external experts who have knowledge on and experience with each tool and who may be consulted by RIVM for further advice. Version: July 2004 Filesize: 1.39 MB Added on: 09-Jul-2004 Downloads: 4268 HomePage Category: Reports   RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication: part 1   Description: RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication, Mini-Checklist and Quickscan Questionnaire Version: june 2003 Filesize: 187.43 Kb Added on: 23-Jun-2003 Downloads: 4124 HomePage Category: Reports   Inclusion of Pedigree-analysis (NUSAP) in undergraduate science education: An example   Description: Aalborg University applies a problem-based learning model. Each semester all students form groups. Group members formulate and agree upon a problem they want to address, within their course of study, and write a long report on their findings (length depends on the year of study, the number of group members etc.). Key principles for the choice problem is praxis-orientation, interdisciplinarity, and contextualisation. To facilitate inter-disciplinarity two supervisors – a disciplinary and a contextual – might be associated with student groups. A team of seven undergraduate students of Chemistry, Environmental technology and Biotechnology study-programme at Aalborg University, and thei contextual superviso worked on the problem “What is the risk of methane migration into houses situated on the terminated landfill “Skrænten” in Hjørring, Denmark?” The work consisted of both a technical part and a contextual part. In the technical part we investigated the theoretical foundation of methane production in landfills and we measured the concentration of methane at different places at the landfill Skrænten in Hjørring. In the contextual part a NUSAP analysis was done on the risk assessment of the gas-producing landfill that had been carried out by the local authorities. Version: 1 Filesize: 468.75 Kb Added on: 13-Oct-2009 Downloads: 4119 Category: papers   Towards Guidance in Assessing and Communicating Uncertainties   Description: Peter H.M. Janssen, Arthur C. Petersen, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, James S. Risbey and Jerome R. Ravetz, Towards Guidance in Assessing and Communicating Uncertainties Paper presented at the Fourth International Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output (SAMO), Santa Fe, 8-11 March 2004. Version: final Filesize: 416.17 Kb Added on: 03-Mar-2004 Downloads: 4085 Category: papers   RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication: part 2   Description: RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication: Quickscan Hints & Actions List Version: june 2003 Filesize: 0 bytes Added on: 23-Jun-2003 Downloads: 3842 HomePage Category: Reports   Detailed RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication   Description: Detailed checklist instrument of the RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication. Developed by Utrecht University Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (RIVM/MNP). Published: October 2003. Version: 1 Filesize: 1.12 MB Added on: 08-Jul-2003 Downloads: 3764 HomePage Category: Reports   Dealing with uncertainty in numbers   Description: Jerry Ravetz, Dealing with uncertainty in numbers Version: 1 Filesize: 122.58 Kb Added on: 17-Aug-2002 Downloads: 3555 HomePage Category: Draft papers and reports   Uncertainty assessment of the IMAGE/TIMER B1 CO2 emissions scenario, using the NUSAP method   Description: Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, Jose Potting, James Risbey, Detlef van Vuuren, Bert de Vries, Arthur Beusen, Peter Heuberger, Serafin Corral Quintana, Silvio Funtowicz, Penny Kloprogge, David Nuijten, Arthur Petersen, Jerry Ravetz. 2001. Uncertainty assessment of the IMAGE/TIMER B1 CO2 emissions scenario, using the NUSAP method Dutch National Research Program on Climate Change, Report no: 410 200 104 (2002), 225 pp. Version: March 2002 Filesize: 2.38 MB Added on: 11-Oct-2001 Downloads: 3530 HomePage Category: Reports   COMMUNICATING AND REPORTING UNCERTAINTY   Description: Presentation by Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Serafin Corral Quintana, Knowledge Assessment Methodologies (KAM), EC-JRC, Ispra. Presented at the 11 November 2002 FP6 launch event "Management of Uncertainty in Science for Sustainability, future research challenges for Europe". Also presented at the workshop "Naar een strategie voor omgaan met onzekerheid binnen het werkveld van het MNP", RIVM and Department of Science Technology and Society, Utrecht University, De Bilt 22 November 2001. Version: 22-11-2001 Filesize: 3.90 MB Added on: 27-Nov-2001 Downloads: 3139 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Paradoxes and the Future of Safety in the Global Knowledge Economy   Description: Jerry Ravetz: Paradoxes and the Future of Safety in the Global Knowledge Economy Governments face increasingly acute dilemmas in securing the safety of their citizens in the face of controversial technological innovations. This state of crisis results from structural features of the global knowledge economy. Governments are forced into contradictory roles, acting both as promoters of global business enterprise and also as regulators on behalf of a sophisticated and suspicious public. I explain the crisis by substituting ‘safety’ for ‘risk’ as the operative concept, and also using paradox as an explanatory tool. I produce a closed-cycle paradox, analogous to the classic Catch-22, to exhibit the contradictions in the situation. I argue that ‘safety’ is a very useful concept for policy-related science precisely because it exposes those contradictions and others latent in scientific methodology. I discuss ways of resolving these contradictions, which include the recognition of policy-critical ignorance and the adoption of the perspective of post-normal science. Version: 2 Filesize: 248.64 Kb Added on: 09-Sep-2002 Downloads: 3126 HomePage Category: papers   Poster: Uncertainty assessment of the IMAGE TIMER B1 CO2 emissions scenario using the NUSAP method   Description: Poster presented at the final conference of the Dutch National Research Program on Climate Change, Nov 15, 2001 by J.P. van der Sluijs et al. Version: Filesize: 113.64 Kb Added on: 15-Nov-2001 Downloads: 3077 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   The Post-Normal Science of Precaution   Description: Jerry Ravetz, The Post-Normal Science of Precaution Version: 1 Filesize: 111.54 Kb Added on: 17-Aug-2002 Downloads: 2924 HomePage Category: Draft papers and reports   Models as Metaphors: A New Look at Science   Description: Jerry Ravetz, Models as Metaphors: A New Look at Science The research discussed in the present volume was conceived and organised around the problematic character of Integrated Assessment (IA) computer models of global change. Since they do not claim to make factual statements or reliable predictions, the questions of their scientific status, and of their use for policy, become urgent. In focus groups conducted with citizens, these models were seen as useful for enlarging the scope of people’s imagination about climate change and the role of individuals in thatproblem. In that context models were discovered to be ‘poetic’. Stimulated by this experience, this chapter explores the question of whether they could fruitfully be seen as ‘metaphors’, expressing in an indirect form our presuppositions about the problem and its possible solutions. Although this approach is very different from the traditional understanding of scientific knowledge, it may well be useful in helping science adapt to its new functions in an age of sustainability challenges and scientific uncertainty. Version: 1 Filesize: 76.08 Kb Added on: 17-Aug-2002 Downloads: 2834 HomePage Category: Draft papers and reports   Uncertainty Assessment of VOC emissions from Paint in the Netherlands using NUSAP   Description: This study demonstrates the application of NUSAP to the case of VOC emissions from paint. By means of expert elicitation we identified critical assumptions, key sources of error and conceivable sources of motivational bias in the monitoring. We elicited pedigree and PDFs of all inputs and combined findings in a diagnostic diagram. Overall we conclude that NUSAP provides a strong diagnostic tool which yields a richer insight in sources and nature of uncertainty than Monte Carlo analysis alone. The protocol structure stimulates scrutinization of method and underlying assumptions and effectively facilitates structured creative thinking on sources of error. Version: 1 Filesize: 1.48 MB Added on: 13-Jun-2002 Downloads: 2811 HomePage Category: Reports   Marcelo Firpo Porto: Risks and uncertainties in vulnerable contexts: the Brazilian experience   Description: Presentation by Marcelo Firpo Porto at the Mini-symposium "The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy", World Congress on Risk, Brussels, 22-25 June 2003. Version: Filesize: 198.00 Kb Added on: 25-Jun-2003 Downloads: 2778 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Arthur Petersen: The Precautionary Principle, Knowledge Uncertainty, and Environmental Assessment   Description: Paper prepared for the workshop "Knowledge Uncertainty" of the Netherlands Institute for Government (30-31 October 2002). Version: 1 Filesize: 84.86 Kb Added on: 29-Oct-2002 Downloads: 2664 HomePage Category: Draft papers and reports   Jerry Ravetz: Ruskin and the Scientisits   Description: Jerry Ravetz reflects on the perils and ethics of science advice. In a previous essay on the difficulties of restoring public trust in science , I mentioned that ‘science advice’ is a new and poorly understood form of science. There I focused mainly on the public’s discontents. Now I would like to analyse science advice more deeply, exploring the implications of this new professional role. Version: 1 Filesize: 3.28 MB Added on: 05-Nov-2002 Downloads: 2628 HomePage Category: papers   Model evaluation and performance   Description: B. Beck. Model Evaluation and Performance. in: A.H. El-Shaarawi and W.W. Piegorsch, Encyclopedia of Environmetrics. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Chichester, 2002. Version: Filesize: 29.97 Kb Added on: 15-Nov-2001 Downloads: 2563 Category: papers   Matthieu Craye: The reflexive management of uncertainty and the use of the NUSAP scheme   Description: Presentation by Matthieu Craye at the Mini-symposium "The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy", World Congress on Risk, Brussels, 22-25 June 2003. Version: Filesize: 76.00 Kb Added on: 25-Jun-2003 Downloads: 2554 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Jeroen van der Sluijs: Management of Uncertainty in Science for Sustainability: research challenges   Description: Powerpoint presentation at the 11 November 2002 FP6 launch event "Management of Uncertainty in Science for Sustainability, future research challenges for Europe". Version: 1 Filesize: 1.07 MB Added on: 12-Nov-2002 Downloads: 2536 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Uncertainty assessment of NOx, SO2 and NH3 emissions in the Netherlands   Description: R. van Gijlswijk, P. Coenen, T. Pulles and J.P. van der Sluijs, 2004: Uncertainty assessment of NOx, SO2 and NH3 emissions in the Netherlands. Joint report by TNO and Copernicus Institute in commission of the RIVM. This study applies the NUSAP method. Version: March 2004 Filesize: 1.82 MB Added on: 16-Mar-2004 Downloads: 2536 Category: Reports   Jeroen van der Sluijs: RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and communication   Description: Presentation by Jeroen van der Sluijs at the Mini-symposium "The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy", World Congress on Risk, Brussels, 22-25 June 2003. Version: Filesize: 791.50 Kb Added on: 25-Jun-2003 Downloads: 2452 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Claudia E. Natenzon: Risk and uncertainties in a climate change impacts study. Links between scienti   Description: Presentation by Claudia E. Natenzon at the Mini-symposium "The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy", World Congress on Risk, Brussels, 22-25 June 2003. Version: Filesize: 181.50 Kb Added on: 25-Jun-2003 Downloads: 2425 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Uncertainty Assessment and Communication   Description: Invited presentation by Jeroen van der Sluijs at the Risk and Uncertainty day of the first meeting of the UK FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH CONSORTIUM, Nottingham, 6 October 2004. For more information on the flood risk consortium, see http://www.floodrisk.org.uk/. Version: 6 okt 2004 Filesize: 1.50 MB Added on: 06-Oct-2004 Downloads: 2409 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Andrea Saltelli: QUANTITATIVE METHODS TO MANAGE UNCERTAINTY IN SCIENCE   Description: Powerpoint presentation at the 11 November 2002 FP6 launch event "Management of Uncertainty in Science for Sustainability, future research challenges for Europe". Version: 1 Filesize: 1.28 MB Added on: 12-Nov-2002 Downloads: 2320 Category: Lectures and poster presentations   John Grin: Dealing with risks in modern institutions: the Hercules effort   Description: Presentation by John Grin at the Mini-symposium "The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy", World Congress on Risk, Brussels, 22-25 June 2003. Version: Filesize: 66.00 Kb Added on: 25-Jun-2003 Downloads: 2317 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Matthias Kaiser: Uncertainty and Precaution   Description: Powerpoint presentation at the 11 November 2002 FP6 launch event "Management of Uncertainty in Science for Sustainability, future research challenges for Europe". Version: 1 Filesize: 90.82 Kb Added on: 12-Nov-2002 Downloads: 2134 Category: Lectures and poster presentations   A Protocol for Assessment of Uncertainty and Strength of Emissions Data   Description: Risbey, James, Jeroen van der Sluijs, Jerry Ravetz, A Protocol for Assessment of Uncertainty and Strength of Emissions Data, Dept. of Science, Technology and Society, Utrecht University.18pp. NWS-E-2001-10 Version: final Filesize: 650.36 Kb Added on: 09-Oct-2001 Downloads: 2133 HomePage Category: Reports   Joachim Spangenberg: Extended Peer Reviews   Description: Powerpoint presentation "Extended Peer Reviews: A tool in science for sustainability, Concept, experiences, lessons learnt" presented by Joachim Spangenberg at the 11 November 2002 FP6 launch event "Management of Uncertainty in Science for Sustainability, future research challenges for Europe". Version: 1 Filesize: 872.07 Kb Added on: 12-Nov-2002 Downloads: 2052 Category: Lectures and poster presentations   SIMLAB   Description: SimLab 1.1 is a free software package designed for Monte Carlo analysis developed at the Applied Statistics Group at the EC Joint Research Centre. SimLab is made of three modules. These modules cover all the activities of a Monte Carlo analysis. 1. The Statistical Pre Processor takes care that a range and distribution are selected for each input factor. These selections are used in the generation of a sample from the input factors. the first and second step of Monte Carlo analysis. 2. The Model Execution runs the model for each sample element. 3. The Statistical Post Processor takes care of the uncertainty analysis. One way to characterise the uncertainty is with a mean value and a variance. The Statistical Post Processor also performs the sensitivity analysis based on an exploration of the mapping from analysis input to analysis results. Version: 1.1 Filesize: 0 bytes Added on: 24-Nov-2001 Downloads: 2025 HomePage Category: Tools and software   The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy: Introduction   Description: Introduction to Mini-symposium "The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy", World Congress on Risk, Brussels, 22-25 June 2003. Organised by Silvio Funtowicz, Knowledge Assessment Methodologies Sector, European Commission Joint Research Centre. Version: Filesize: 77.00 Kb Added on: 25-Jun-2003 Downloads: 2008 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Data Quality Pedigree Calculator   Description: Microsoft Excel® 97 for Windows® workbook file, pedigree.xls, that supports the calculation of data quality pedigrees using the Microsoft Excel Visual Basic program referenced in Ellis et al. (2000). This tool, developped by Erle Ellis et al. can be used to enter pedigrees for variables in standardized worksheets and to evaluate how the pedigree propagates in a calculation. Includes interactive demonstration, examples and manuals. Erle C. Ellis, Rong Gang Li, Lin Zhang Yang and Xu Cheng. 2000. Long-term Change in Village-Scale Ecosystems in China Using Landscape and Statistical Methods. Ecological Applications 10:1057-1073. Version: Filesize: 0 bytes Added on: 14-Oct-2001 Downloads: 1978 HomePage Category: Tools and software   Jacquie Burgess: DELIBERATION   Description: Powerpoint presentation at the 11 November 2002 FP6 launch event "Management of Uncertainty in Science for Sustainability, future research challenges for Europe". Version: 1 Filesize: 63.48 Kb Added on: 12-Nov-2002 Downloads: 1962 Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Quicksandy knowledge bases   Description: Quicksandy Knowledge Bases: The need for guidance for dealing with uncertainty, assumptions and value commitments in environmental assessment. Key-note presentation by Jeroen van der Sluijs at the Internatational workshop Interfaces between Science and Society, Milano, 27-28 November 2003 Version: Filesize: 0 bytes Added on: 28-Nov-2003 Downloads: 1903 Category: Lectures and poster presentations   PowerPoint - Uncertainty assessment of the IMAGE/TIMER B1 CO2 emissions scenario using NUSAP   Description: PowerPoint presentation Uncertainty assessment of the IMAGE/TIMER B1 CO2 emissions scenario using the NUSAP method, by Jeroen van der Sluijs at the final conference of the Dutch National Research Program on Climate Change, 15 Nov 2001. Version: Filesize: 281.03 Kb Added on: 15-Nov-2001 Downloads: 1888 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Towards multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment   Description: Towards multi-dimensional uncertainty assessment for complex environmental problems Presentation by Jeroen van der Sluijs in the Break-out session "Uncertainty, assumptions and value commitments in environemental assessment" at the Internatational workshop Interfaces between Science and Society, Milano, 27-28 November 2003 Version: Filesize: 0 bytes Added on: 28-Nov-2003 Downloads: 1877 Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Penny Kloprogge: Towards a systematic treatment of value-ladeness in IA modelling   Description: Powerpoint presentation at the 11 November 2002 FP6 launch event "Management of Uncertainty in Science for Sustainability, future research challenges for Europe". Version: 1 Filesize: 1.85 MB Added on: 17-Nov-2002 Downloads: 1807 HomePage Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Mode II strategies for sustainable development   Description: Mode II strategies for sustainable development: Approaches and obstacles of two Dutch intermediaries Presentation by Barbara Regeer in the Break-out session "Uncertainty, assumptions and value commitments in environemental assessment" at the Internatational workshop Interfaces between Science and Society, Milano, 27-28 November 2003 Version: Filesize: 0 bytes Added on: 28-Nov-2003 Downloads: 1694 Category: Lectures and poster presentations   Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty  Description: Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some degree, but their suitability depends on the specific situation. For instance, some approaches work well under deep uncertainty, while others perform better under lower levels of uncertainty. This thesis presents several empirical studies on climate change impacts & adaptation under uncertainty in actual adaptation decision-situations. Methods used include expert elicitation, document analysis, empirical workshops, discourse analysis, literature review, and case-study analysis. Version: 2011 Filesize: 3.42 MB Added on: 31-May-2011 Downloads: 369 HomePage Category: papers

Login Nickname Password User login is temporary disabled. (explanation why). As registered user you can use the interactive model quality checklist. Categories · Archived articles (06/19) Past Articles Wednesday, October 20 2004 · Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management: insights from UPEM Wednesday, September 01 2004 · WORLDWIDE VIRTUAL NETWORK OF YOUNG PRACTITIONERS WORKING ON SCIENCE AND SOCIETY Wednesday, August 25 2004 · Short Course Model Uncertainty Analysis (13-14 October 2004) Wednesday, July 28 2004 · Summer school on sensitivity analysis in Venice Wednesday, May 26 2004 · Course: Genetic engineering; Connecting science, risk and communities Tuesday, April 27 2004 · Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management (UPEM 2004) Monday, April 26 2004 · New book on sensitivity analysis Tuesday, March 16 2004 · Uncertainty assessment of NOx, SO2 and NH3 emissions in the Netherlands Wednesday, March 03 2004 · Safety Paradoxes - revised · Towards Guidance in Assessing and Communicating Uncertainties Saturday, November 29 2003 · Professor Poul Harremoës died Monday, August 04 2003 · Towards a synthesis of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty assessment Monday, July 21 2003 · Workshop: Interfaces between science and society, 27-28 nov 2003, Milano Monday, June 23 2003 · RIVM/MNP guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication Thursday, June 12 2003 · Workshop: Uncertainty in environmental health risk science and policy Saturday, May 17 2003 · Mini sysmposium: The management of uncertainty in risk science and policy Tuesday, January 28 2003 · Symposium: Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management (June 2004) Tuesday, November 05 2002 · Ruskin and the Scientists Tuesday, October 29 2002 · The Precautionary Principle, Knowledge Uncertainty, and Environmental Assessment Monday, October 07 2002 · MUST Session at November FP6 conference Thursday, September 12 2002 · Safety in the Globalising Knowledge Economy Wednesday, June 19 2002 · One day free course on Sensitivity Analysis at the JRC - Ispra. Friday, June 07 2002 · Conference announcement: Foresight · EoI Management of Uncertainty in science for suSTainability sent to Brussels Tuesday, May 28 2002 · Utrecht University to start Master Sustainable Development Monday, May 27 2002 · State of affairs FP6 EoI Uncertainty Management Thursday, May 23 2002 · Network of Excellence on uncertainty management in science for sustainability Tuesday, April 23 2002 · Summer School on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output Tuesday, January 22 2002 · New book on ''The Precautionary Principle'' from EEA Thursday, October 11 2001 · NUSAP net starts experimental and testing phase Older Articles

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