NUSAP net

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty Popular

Description: Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some degree, but their suitability depends on the specific situation. For instance, some approaches work well under deep uncertainty, while others perform better under lower levels of uncertainty. This thesis presents several empirical studies on climate change impacts & adaptation under uncertainty in actual adaptation decision-situations. Methods used include expert elicitation, document analysis, empirical workshops, discourse analysis, literature review, and case-study analysis.
Version: 2011 Filesize: 3.42 MB
Added on: 31-May-2011 Downloads: 3102 HomePage

Global Systems Failures Popular

Description: Jerry Ravetz: Global Systems Failures
It is now obvious that there is a problem of possible massive failures of the various systems on which modern society, indeed all of civilisation, depends. Thanks to climate change and instability, we must reckon with the prospect of at the very least the disruption of our civilisation, quite possibly its serious damage or collapse, and indeed the real possibility of an extinction of species on a scale that takes us back to early in the history of life on the planet. Should we escape from any of those fates, we still must reckon with the fragility of many other global systems. Those of national defence are threatened by the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Those of the management of wastes are already compromised by insidious pollutants. Our systems of maintaining health are seriously threatened by biological pathogens which are created by the conditions of modern technology, be they in mass over-medication, mass travel or mass food. Even the systems of communication are vulnerable to 'malware', pathogens of information which, it now seems, can at best be kept at bay and never wiped out. And suddenly the world, particularly the Anglo-Saxon part, perceives itself as threatened with a failure of systems of protection against 'terror'. This is considered by governments to be so serious as to justify the suspension of liberties that were won many hundreds of years ago. Everywhere we look, there are threats of failures of systems, many on a global scale.
Version: Sept 2005 Filesize: 267.56 Kb
Added on: 26-Sep-2005 Downloads: 14092 HomePage

Inclusion of Pedigree-analysis (NUSAP) in undergraduate science education: An example Popular

Description: Aalborg University applies a problem-based learning model. Each semester all students form groups. Group members formulate and agree upon a problem they want to address, within their course of study, and write a long report on their findings (length depends on the year of study, the number of group members etc.). Key principles for the choice problem is praxis-orientation, interdisciplinarity, and contextualisation. To facilitate inter-disciplinarity two supervisors – a disciplinary and a contextual – might be associated with student groups. A team of seven undergraduate students of Chemistry, Environmental technology and Biotechnology study-programme at Aalborg University, and thei contextual superviso worked on the problem “What is the risk of methane migration into houses situated on the terminated landfill “Skrænten” in Hjørring, Denmark?” The work consisted of both a technical part and a contextual part. In the technical part we investigated the theoretical foundation of methane production in landfills and we measured the concentration of methane at different places at the landfill Skrænten in Hjørring. In the contextual part a NUSAP analysis was done on the risk assessment of the gas-producing landfill that had been carried out by the local authorities.
Version: 1 Filesize: 468.75 Kb
Added on: 13-Oct-2009 Downloads: 12789

Jeroen van der Sluijs: Towards a synthesis of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty assessment Popular

Description: Jeroen van der Sluijs, Penny Kloprogge, James Risbey, and Jerry Ravetz
TOWARDS A SYNTHESIS OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT: APPLICATIONS OF THE NUMERAL, UNIT, SPREAD, ASSESSMENT, PEDIGREE (NUSAP) SYSTEM
Extended abstract prepared on invitation by the US Environmental Protection Agency for the International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling, August 19-21, 2003, Rockville, MD, US. Organised by the Federal Working Group on Uncertainty and Parameter Estimation under the Federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM).
Version: 1 Filesize: 672.70 Kb
Added on: 04-Aug-2003 Downloads: 12305 HomePage

Jerry Ravetz: Ruskin and the Scientisits Popular

Description: Jerry Ravetz reflects on the perils and ethics of science advice.
In a previous essay on the difficulties of restoring public trust in science , I mentioned that ‘science advice’ is a new and poorly understood form of science. There I focused mainly on the public’s discontents. Now I would like to analyse science advice more deeply, exploring the implications of this new professional role.
Version: 1 Filesize: 3.28 MB
Added on: 05-Nov-2002 Downloads: 5346 HomePage

Model evaluation and performance Popular

Description: B. Beck. Model Evaluation and Performance. in: A.H. El-Shaarawi and W.W. Piegorsch, Encyclopedia of Environmetrics. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Chichester, 2002.
Version: Filesize: 29.97 Kb
Added on: 15-Nov-2001 Downloads: 4635

Paradoxes and the Future of Safety in the Global Knowledge Economy Popular

Description: Jerry Ravetz: Paradoxes and the Future of Safety in the Global Knowledge Economy
Governments face increasingly acute dilemmas in securing the safety of their citizens in the face of controversial technological innovations. This state of crisis results from structural features of the global knowledge economy. Governments are forced into contradictory roles, acting both as promoters of global business enterprise and also as regulators on behalf of a sophisticated and suspicious public. I explain the crisis by substituting ‘safety’ for ‘risk’ as the operative concept, and also using paradox as an explanatory tool. I produce a closed-cycle paradox, analogous to the classic Catch-22, to exhibit the contradictions in the situation. I argue that ‘safety’ is a very useful concept for policy-related science precisely because it exposes those contradictions and others latent in scientific methodology. I discuss ways of resolving these contradictions, which include the recognition of policy-critical ignorance and the adoption of the perspective of post-normal science.
Version: 2 Filesize: 248.64 Kb
Added on: 09-Sep-2002 Downloads: 6235 HomePage

Towards a new paradigm of science in scientific policy advising Popular

Description: Towards a new paradigm of science in scientific policy advising
Version: 2007 Filesize: 41.35 Kb
Added on: 15-Oct-2007 Downloads: 12596 HomePage

Towards Guidance in Assessing and Communicating Uncertainties Popular

Description: Peter H.M. Janssen, Arthur C. Petersen, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, James S. Risbey and Jerome R. Ravetz, Towards Guidance in Assessing and Communicating Uncertainties Paper presented at the Fourth International Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output (SAMO), Santa Fe, 8-11 March 2004.
Version: final Filesize: 416.17 Kb
Added on: 03-Mar-2004 Downloads: 8008

Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management: insights from the UPEM conference Popular

Description: Jeroen van der Sluijs: Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management: insights from the UPEM conference
Communication across the science-policy interface is complicated by uncertainty and ignorance associated with predictions on which to base policies. The international symposium “Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management” (UPEM) addressed the philosophy, approaches and scientific tools associated with the analysis and communication of uncertainty and ignorance to decisions makers in relation to the Precautionary Principle. This paper presents a sample of highlights and insights of UPEM of relevance to the environmental modeling communities. Key insights include: (1) Systematic long-term monitoring and learning are essential. (2) More attention is needed for model structure uncertainty and equifinality. (3) Explicit value articulation in environmental assessment is essential. (4) Sophisticated uncertainty assessment and Quality Assurance methods - such as the Walker&Harremoes et al. conceptual uncertainty framework, NUSAP, and codes of uncertainty-explicit modeling practice from RIVM and EPA -, are now available and on their way of becoming main stream. (5) There is a wide range of precautionary interventions (a ban is not the only option). (6) Legal and Ethical dimensions of precaution – such as liability, burden of proof, inter- and intra generational equity - require more thought. (7) The problems that developing countries face in implementing the Precautionary Principle need more attention.
Version: Oct 2004 Filesize: 351.88 Kb
Added on: 20-Oct-2004 Downloads: 48043 HomePage