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Expert Elicitation: Methodological suggestions
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Posted by Jeroen on Thursday, January 22 2009 @ 15:21:00 CET
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A new report Expert Elicitation: Methodological suggestions for
its use in environmental health impact assessments has been published. It provides practical guidance on organising expert panels to assess uncertainty and risk.
Download Expert Elicitation report
This document contains three parts: (1) an introduction, (2) an overview with building blocks
and methodological suggestions for a formal expert elicitation procedure; and (3) a literature
list with key sources of information used and suggestions for further reading.
A glossary is
provided in Appendix 1. Part one starts with the scope and aim of this document, and continues
with a brief introduction to the issue of uncertainty in environmental Health Impact Assessments.
The potential usefulness of expert elicitation in exploring particular uncertainties
is then issued, thereby focusing on quantifiable input for which no reliable data is available
(uncertain quantities), such as a particular exposure-response-function. Part two is intended as
guidance to build a formal (i.e. well-developed, structured, systematic, transparent, traceable,
and documented) expert elicitation procedure that is tailored to the particular research question
and the uncertainties at hand. To this end, an overview (Figure 1) and possible basic
building blocks are provided. For each building block, methodological suggestions are provided
with a view to refer the reader to a range (variety) of possible methods. Yet this overview
does not claim to be exhaustive nor representative of all published methodologies for
expert elicitation. |
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